Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) have been warned to monitor the progress of an area of disturbed weather near Hispaniola, as satellite imagery indicated that a surface circulation could be organizing near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic.
According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, this system continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity, and environmental conditions are favourable for the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm on Saturday or Sunday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was investigating the system on Saturday morning.
The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and over or near the central Bahamas on Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds were expected to continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Saturday.
Winds to tropical storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas, the TCI, and the central Bahamas through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
Interests in the TCI and The Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance notice.
Chances of a tropical cyclone forming through the next five days are high (90 percent).