Tropical depression Gabrielle forecast track. NHC/NOAA graphic
Tropical storm Gabrielle was downgraded to a tropical depression on Thursday morning and all storm warnings have been discontinued for Puerto Rico. However, interests in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the tropical storm warning from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo to a tropical storm watch and has discontinued the tropical storm watch from Santo Domingo to Cabo Engano.
According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, at 11:00 am EDT on Thursday, the centre of tropical depression Gabrielle was located about 80 miles south-southeast of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, and about 105 miles west-southwest of Ponce, Puerto Rico.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Gabrielle has become very poorly organized and it is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by Thursday night or Friday as the centre moves over the Dominican Republic.
Gabrielle is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible in areas of mountainous terrain. These rains could cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible on Thursday over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Tropical Atlantic overview. NHC/NOAA graphic
Meanwhile, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough extends from the northeast Leeward Islands northeastward over the Atlantic waters for several hundred miles. Any development of this system is expected to be slow due to its proximity to tropical depression Gabrielle and strong upper-level winds. This system has a low chance (20 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Development is not expected after 48 hours.
Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased in association with a trough of low pressure. Further development of this system is possible before it moves inland along the coast of mainland Mexico on Friday. This system has a medium chance (30 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with another tropical wave located about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are showing some signs of organization. However, further development, if any, is expected to be limited due to dry air, and environmental conditions are forecast to become very unfavourable in a couple of days. This system has a low chance (10 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days as it moves to the west-northwest at about 10 mph.
Finally, a tropical wave over Africa is expected to move over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean in a couple of days and development of this system is possible over the weekend into early next week.